ReadGlobe · Judgment & probability
Estimating odds, reading data and avoiding the statistical traps that fool almost everyone.
Bayesian thinking is updating your beliefs in proportion to new evidence — starting from a prior probability and…
Mental model · updated 29 May 2026
Regression to the mean is the tendency for extreme results to be followed by more average ones, simply because luck…
Mental model · updated 29 May 2026
Expected value is the average outcome of a decision if you could repeat it many times — each possible result weighted…
Mental model · updated 29 May 2026
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to ignore how common or rare something is (the base rate) and judge by specific,…
Cognitive bias · updated 29 May 2026
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that past random events change the odds of future ones — that after a run of reds,…
Cognitive bias · updated 29 May 2026
Written by Paulo de Vries · free to read, no sign-up