A bias in which an initial number, even an irrelevant one, pulls later estimates toward it because we adjust away from it too little.

Where does it show up?

Negotiations, pricing, salary offers, and any estimate under uncertainty — the first figure mentioned tends to shape the final one.

How do you defend against it?

Decide your own number first, from your own reasoning, before hearing the other side’s figure — so their anchor lands on a mind that’s already made up.

Anchoring

Also called the anchoring effect · Cognitive psychology

Anchoring is the way an initial number — even an arbitrary or irrelevant one — pulls our later estimates toward it. Once an anchor is in mind we adjust away from it, but rarely far enough, so the first figure we hear quietly shapes the final judgment.

How it works

Faced with uncertainty, we grab a starting value and adjust — but adjustment is effortful and stops early, leaving the estimate biased toward the anchor. The anchor also primes anchor-consistent information, making it feel more plausible than it should. Even numbers we know are random still tug.

How to use it

Setting your own reservation price before you hear the other side’s number in a negotiation.
Distrusting estimates that started from a quoted figure, list price, or first offer.
Anchoring on purpose — the first credible number on the table shapes the whole range.

Worked example

People asked whether Gandhi died before or after age 144, then to estimate his actual age at death, guess higher than those first asked about age 35 — even though both anchors are obviously absurd. The number alone moved the answer.

Where it fails

Anchoring is hard to fully resist even when you know about it, so “just ignore the number” rarely works. The stronger defence is to generate your own estimate first, from your own reasoning, before any external figure can set the anchor.

The deeper point

Its practical sting is that whoever puts the first number on the table usually wins the range — so in any negotiation or estimate, the real leverage is deciding your own figure beforehand, so the other side’s anchor lands on a mind that’s already made up.

Frequently asked

What is anchoring?: A bias in which an initial number, even an irrelevant one, pulls later estimates toward it because we adjust away from it too little.
Where does it show up?: Negotiations, pricing, salary offers, and any estimate under uncertainty — the first figure mentioned tends to shape the final one.
How do you defend against it?: Decide your own number first, from your own reasoning, before hearing the other side’s figure — so their anchor lands on a mind that’s already made up.

Loss aversion Confirmation bias First-principles thinking Signal vs noise Wikipedia: Anchoring (cognitive bias)

The books behind better thinking

Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman
The Art of Thinking Clearly — Rolf Dobelli
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 — Shane Parrish
Poor Charlie’s Almanack — Charlie Munger
Super Thinking — Gabriel Weinberg & Lauren McCann
Seeking Wisdom — Peter Bevelin

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Editorial synthesis © ReadGlobe 2026, drawing on the mental-models tradition (Charlie Munger, Farnam Street) and the primary sources for each model. · Last reviewed 2026-07-01.