Decide well
A path through the models and biases of good decisions under uncertainty — how to weigh outcomes, update on evidence, sidestep the classic traps, and always leave a margin for being wrong.
Good decisions aren’t about certainty — they’re about choosing well when you can’t be sure. This room moves from the tools that help you weigh a choice, through the biases that quietly sabotage it, to the safeguards that let you be wrong without being ruined.
- 1Mental modelExpected value
The core move: weigh each outcome by how likely it is, not just how good or bad it would feel.
- 2Mental modelBayesian thinking
Hold beliefs as probabilities and update them as evidence arrives — strong opinions, loosely held.
- 3Cognitive biasBase-rate neglect
The vivid story makes you forget the boring statistic that should anchor your estimate.
- 4Cognitive biasLoss aversion
Losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good — which quietly warps every choice.
- 5Cognitive biasSunk-cost fallacy
What you’ve already spent is gone; the only question is what’s best from here.
- 6Mental modelInversion
Instead of chasing success, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid exactly that.
- 7Mental modelMargin of safety
Leave room to be wrong. The best decisions survive being mistaken.
Where this leaves you
Deciding well is a loop: weigh honestly, update as you learn, dodge the traps, and always build in a margin. You won’t be right every time — the goal is to be wrong safely and win over the long run.
The books behind better thinking
Listen to any of these free. Start a free Audible trial and get your first audiobook on the house.
Prefer to read? The canonical picks:
- Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman
- The Art of Thinking Clearly — Rolf Dobelli
- The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 — Shane Parrish
- Poor Charlie’s Almanack — Charlie Munger
- Super Thinking — Gabriel Weinberg & Lauren McCann
- Seeking Wisdom — Peter Bevelin
As an Amazon Associate, ReadGlobe earns from qualifying purchases and Audible trials — at no extra cost to you.