ReadGlobe · morning brief · archive
Tuesday 29 September
1 · The text
Riding out a windstorm in a treetop
Muir climbs a swaying spruce in a gale, on purpose, to feel how the forest moves.
2 min · John Muir · The Mountains of California · 1894 · public domain
Toward midday, after a long, tingling scramble through copses of hazel and ceanothus, I gained the summit of the highest ridge in the neighborhood; and then it occurred to me that it would be a fine thing to climb one of the trees to obtain a wider outlook and get my ear close to the Aeolian music of its topmost needles. But under the circumstances the choice of a tree was a serious matter. One whose instep was not very strong seemed in danger of being blown down, or of being struck by others in case they should fall; another was branchless to a considerable height above the ground, and at the same time too large to be grasped with arms and legs in climbing; while others were not favorably situated for clear views. After cautiously casting about, I made choice of the tallest of a group of Douglas Spruces that were growing close together like a tuft of grass, no one of which seemed likely to fall unless all the rest fell with it. Though comparatively young, they were about 100 feet high, and their lithe, brushy tops were rocking and swirling in wild ecstasy. Being accustomed to climb trees in making botanical studies, I experienced no difficulty in reaching the top of this one, and never before did I enjoy so noble an exhilaration of motion. The slender tops fairly flapped and swished in the passionate torrent, bending and swirling backward and forward, round and round, tracing indescribable combinations of vertical and horizontal curves, while I clung with muscles firm braced, like a bobolink on a reed.
In its widest sweeps my tree-top described an arc of from twenty to thirty degrees, but I felt sure of its elastic temper, having seen others of the same species still more severely tried—bent almost to the ground indeed, in heavy snows—without breaking a fiber. I was therefore safe, and free to take the wind into my pulses and enjoy the excited forest from my superb outlook. The view from here must be extremely beautiful in any weather. Now my eye roved over the piny hills and dales as over fields of waving grain, and felt the light running in ripples and broad swelling undulations across the valleys from ridge to ridge, as the shining foliage was stirred by corresponding waves of air. Oftentimes these waves of reflected light would break up suddenly into a kind of beaten foam, and again, after chasing one another in regular order, they would seem to bend forward in concentric curves, and disappear on some hillside, like sea-waves on a shelving shore.
2 · One idea · Behavioural economics
The sunk cost fallacy
Picture yourself forty minutes into a film you already know is bad. The ticket cost twelve euros. You stay.
The twelve euros are gone either way. Staying only adds an hour you will not enjoy to money you will not get back.
Biologists have a name for this mistake, borrowed from an aeroplane. In 1976 Richard Dawkins and Tamsin Carlisle called it the Concorde fallacy, after the supersonic jet that governments kept funding because of how much they had already spent on it.
In one line. The sunk cost fallacy is the pull to keep investing in something — money, time, effort — because of what you’ve already put in, rather than what it will return from here. Past costs are gone whatever you do; only future costs and benefits should decide the next move.
Worked example
You’ve paid for a concert ticket, then feel ill on the night. The money is gone either way; the only real question is whether a miserable evening out beats resting at home. Going only “because you paid” is the fallacy — spending a good evening to honour a lost cost.
How to use it, and where it fails3 · One number
People without enough food, world
200512.0%
20248.2%
1.5 times lower than in 2005.
Progress here has stalled more than once; a falling line is not a law.
Source: Our World in Data, world estimates, read 2026-09-24.