ReadGlobe · morning brief · archive
Saturday 17 October
1 · The text
El Dorado, and why arriving is not the point
Stevenson argues that wanting beats having, and that no journey is really about its end.
4 min · Robert Louis Stevenson · Virginibus Puerisque · 1881 · public domain
One who goes touring on foot with a single volume in his knapsack reads with circumspection, pausing often to reflect, and often laying the book down to contemplate the landscape or the prints in the inn parlour; for he fears to come to an end of his entertainment, and be left companionless on the last stages of his journey. A young fellow recently finished the works of Thomas Carlyle, winding up, if we remember aright, with the ten note-books upon Frederick the Great. “What!” cried the young fellow, in consternation, “is there no more Carlyle? Am I left to the daily papers?” A more celebrated instance is that of Alexander, who wept bitterly because he had no more worlds to subdue. And when Gibbon had finished the Decline and Fall, he had only a few moments of joy; and it was with a “sober melancholy” that he parted from his labours.
Happily we all shoot at the moon with ineffectual arrows; our hopes are set on inaccessible El Dorado; we come to an end of nothing here below. Interests are only plucked up to sow themselves again, like mustard. You would think, when the child was born, there would be an end to trouble; and yet it is only the beginning of fresh anxieties; and when you have seen it through its teething and its education, and at last its marriage, alas! it is only to have new fears, new quivering sensibilities, with every day; and the health of your children’s children grows as touching a concern as that of your own. Again, when you have married your wife, you would think you were got upon a hilltop, and might begin to go downward by an easy slope. But you have only ended courting to begin marriage. Falling in love and winning love are often difficult tasks to overbearing and rebellious spirits; but to keep in love is also a business of some importance, to which both man and wife must bring kindness and goodwill. The true love story commences at the altar, when there lies before the married pair a most beautiful contest of wisdom and generosity, and a life-long struggle towards an unattainable ideal. Unattainable? Ay, surely unattainable, from the very fact that they are two instead of one.
“Of making books there is no end,” complained the Preacher; and did not perceive how highly he was praising letters as an occupation. There is no end, indeed, to making books or experiments, or to travel, or to gathering wealth. Problem gives rise to problem. We may study for ever, and we are never as learned as we would. We have never made a statue worthy of our dreams. And when we have discovered a continent, or crossed a chain of mountains, it is only to find another ocean or another plain upon the further side. In the infinite universe there is room for our swiftest diligence and to spare. It is not like the works of Carlyle, which can be read to an end. Even in a corner of it, in a private park, or in the neighbourhood of a single hamlet, the weather and the seasons keep so deftly changing that although we walk there for a lifetime there will be always something new to startle and delight us.
There is only one wish realisable on the earth; only one thing that can be perfectly attained: Death. And from a variety of circumstances we have no one to tell us whether it be worth attaining.
A strange picture we make on our way to our chimæras, ceaselessly marching, grudging ourselves the time for rest; indefatigable, adventurous pioneers. It is true that we shall never reach the goal; it is even more than probable that there is no such place; and if we lived for centuries and were endowed with the powers of a god, we should find ourselves not much nearer what we wanted at the end. O toiling hands of mortals! O unwearied feet, travelling ye know not whither! Soon, soon, it seems to you, you must come forth on some conspicuous hilltop, and but a little way further, against the setting sun, descry the spires of El Dorado. Little do ye know your own blessedness; for to travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive, and the true success is to labour.
2 · One idea · Probability & reasoning
Base-rate neglect
A witness swears the taxi was blue, and she gets colours right four times out of five.
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman put this puzzle to people. A cab hits someone at night and drives off. In that city 85 percent of cabs are green and 15 percent are blue. The witness says blue.
Most people put the odds well above half. The real answer is about 41 percent. Take 100 cabs: she calls 12 of the 15 blue ones blue, and wrongly calls 17 of the 85 green ones blue as well.
A good witness can still point at the wrong car when the right car is rare.
In one line. Base-rate neglect is the habit of judging a specific case on its vivid details while ignoring how common the category is to begin with. A test result, a stereotype, a striking match — all mislead when we forget the background rate they sit against.
Worked example
A disease affects 1 in 1,000 people and a test is 99% accurate. A positive result feels alarming — yet because the disease is so rare, most positives are false, and the true chance of illness is under 10%. The base rate, not the test, does the heavy lifting.
How to use it, and where it fails3 · One number
People using the internet, world
200516%
202574%
4.7 times the 2005 level.
Most of this happened within one generation, and a quarter of the world is still offline.
Source: Our World in Data, world estimates, read 2026-09-24.