Is Moore's law still true?

It held for decades but is now slowing as transistor sizes approach atomic limits. The broader lesson — that some technologies improve exponentially — remains useful even as this specific doubling cadence bends.

Why does Moore's law matter?

Because exponential change defeats linear intuition. Forecasts that add rather than double badly underestimate technological progress, which is why so many 'impossible' compute-heavy things became ordinary within a couple of decades.

Moore's law

Technology & forecasting

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors on a chip roughly doubles every two years, so computing power grows exponentially while cost falls. More broadly, it’s the model that some technologies improve at a steady exponential rate.

How it works

Recognise that some technologies improve not linearly but exponentially — doubling at a regular cadence. Project forward by doubling, not adding, and expect that what’s impossible or expensive today can become trivial within a few doubling periods.

How to use it

Forecasting technology: extrapolate by doublings, not increments.
Anticipating that today’s expensive or impossible compute-heavy thing may soon be cheap.
Recognising exponential trends elsewhere (solar cost, gene sequencing, bandwidth).

Worked example

A task needing a supercomputer in 2000 runs on a phone today, because compute power doubled roughly every two years for decades. Planning that assumed linear progress badly underestimated where computing — and everything built on it — would be.

Where it fails

Exponential trends don’t last forever — Moore’s law itself is slowing as physics hits atomic limits, and treating any exponential as permanent invites the same error as treating it as linear. Knowing when an exponential will bend is the hard part.

The deeper point

Its enduring lesson outlives the chip-specific trend: human intuition is linear, but some of the most important forces are exponential, and the gap between the two is where both the great surprises and the great fortunes are made. We overestimate the short run and underestimate the long.

Frequently asked

What is Moore's law?: It’s the observation that the number of transistors on a microchip roughly doubles every two years, so computing power grows exponentially while cost falls. More broadly, it models technologies that improve at a steady exponential rate.
Is Moore's law still true?: It held for decades but is now slowing as transistor sizes approach atomic limits. The broader lesson — that some technologies improve exponentially — remains useful even as this specific doubling cadence bends.
Why does Moore's law matter?: Because exponential change defeats linear intuition. Forecasts that add rather than double badly underestimate technological progress, which is why so many 'impossible' compute-heavy things became ordinary within a couple of decades.

Compounding Creative destruction The Lindy effect Optimism bias

Editorial synthesis © ReadGlobe 2026, drawing on the mental-models tradition (Charlie Munger, Farnam Street) and the primary sources for each model. · Last reviewed 2026-05-29.