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Friday 25 September
1 · The text
At fifteen I bent my mind on learning
Confucius on governing by example, the seven ages of his own mind, and what respect for a parent really means.
2 min · Confucius · The Analects of Confucius · tr. James Legge · 1861 · public domain
CHAP. I. The Master said, 'He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it.' CHAP. II. The Master said, 'In the Book of Poetry are three hundred pieces, but the design of them all may be embraced in one sentence— "Having no depraved thoughts."' CHAP. III. 1. The Master said, 'If the people be led by laws, and uniformity sought to be given them by punishments, they will try to avoid the punishment, but have no sense of shame. 2. 'If they be led by virtue, and uniformity sought to be given them by the rules of propriety, they will have the sense of shame, and moreover will become good.' CHAP. IV. 1. The Master said, 'At fifteen, I had my mind bent on learning. 2. 'At thirty, I stood firm. 3. 'At forty, I had no doubts. 4. 'At fifty, I knew the decrees of Heaven.
5. 'At sixty, my ear was an obedient organ for the reception of truth. 6. 'At seventy, I could follow what my heart desired, without transgressing what was right.' CHAP. V. 1. Mang I asked what filial piety was. The Master said, 'It is not being disobedient.' 2. Soon after, as Fan Ch'ih was driving him, the Master told him, saying, 'Mang-sun asked me what filial piety was, and I answered him,— "not being disobedient."' 3. Fan Ch'ih said, 'What did you mean?' The Master replied, 'That parents, when alive, be served according to propriety; that, when dead, they should be buried according to propriety; and that they should be sacrificed to according to propriety.'
CHAP. VI. Mang Wu asked what filial piety was. The Master said, 'Parents are anxious lest their children should be sick.' CHAP. VII. Tsze-yu asked what filial piety was. The Master said, 'The filial piety of now-a-days means the support of one's parents. But dogs and horses likewise are able to do something in the way of support;— without reverence, what is there to distinguish the one support given from the other?'
2 · One idea · Probability & risk
Ergodicity
Here is a bet. Flip a coin. Heads, your money grows by half. Tails, you lose forty percent.
On average each flip earns you five percent. Would you play?
Give the bet once to a thousand people and the group gets richer. Play it a thousand times yourself and you end up with almost nothing, because one head and one tail leave you with ninety cents of every euro.
The average of the crowd and the average of one life are different numbers. A surprising number of bad decisions live in the gap between them.
In one line. Ergodicity is whether the average outcome across many people (the ensemble average) equals the average for one person over time (the time average). When they differ — a non-ergodic system — what looks good "on average" can still ruin any individual who plays.
Worked example
Russian roulette pays well "on average" across many one-time players, but for one person playing repeatedly, ruin is certain. The ensemble average (across people) and the time average (one person over time) point in opposite directions — the bet that looks fine in aggregate kills the individual.
How to use it, and where it fails3 · One number
People using the internet, world
200516%
202574%
4.7 times the 2005 level.
Most of this happened within one generation, and a quarter of the world is still offline.
Source: Our World in Data, world estimates, read 2026-09-24.